Analyzing The Odds Surrounding Floyd Mayeather’s Victory Over Conor McGregor

Floyd Mayweather defeated Conor McGregor on Aug. 26 (Photo: Esther Lin – SHOWTIME)

Floyd Mayweather Workout

By Chris Robinson

It’s hard to describe everything that takes place during Fight Week in Las Vegas.

With the city playing host to the biggest and best boxing events for several decades now, Las Vegas always heats up and gets busy the week of any big boxing fight and all you have to do is take a walk around the city during this time to get a gauge on just how much concentrated energy is around.

People seem to come to Las Vegas for things like partying, sight-seeing, and of course, gambling. The advantage to gambling while in Las Vegas, is that if you get an itch to place a wager, you have the option of online casino while in your room, or if you get the itch to hit the casinos, you can make a wager in person.

The amount of money that is wagered and brought into the city during these precious fight weeks is astronomical for Las Vegas, and in many ways the city depends on these events for the gambling to take off. Such was the case for the Aug. 26 SHOWTIME pay per view showdown between Floyd Mayweather and UFC superstar Conor McGregor, which took place inside of the T-Mobile Arena.

Mayweather handily defeated Conor McGregor in a SHOWTIME pay per view attraction; the former pound-for-pound boxing king, Mayweather, returned from a two-year retirement to defeat McGregor via 10th round TKO.

Just how big worldwide was the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight? Some believe the SHOWTIME pay per view attraction has a chance to surpass the 4.6 million buys generated from the present record-setter to date in Mayweather’s May 2015 victory over Manny Pacquiao.

Like any big event, there was plenty of betting taking place, both in the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and across the world. On Friday morning, on the eve of the Mayweather vs. McGregor weigh-in, Jimmy Shapiro, a sport publicist who is always up-to-date with the odds, gave us a breakdown of some of the betting action taking place just hours before the official weigh-in.

Mayweather, of course, was a favorite at the time (-450) while those looking to cash in on a McGregor upset (+325) would be scoring a big profit.

As I analyzed the odds further, it was interesting to see so many diverse betting options. The over/under on Mayweather’s weight was 152.5 pounds. Upon weighing in, Mayweather came well under, at 149.5 pounds.

Some speculated that McGregor might come overweight from the contracted 154-pound junior middleweight limit, as the +250 odds may have been tempting, but the Irishman weighed in fit and ready at 153 pounds. Anyone betting the under on McGregor’s weight would have had -400 odds at the time.

By stopping McGregor at 1:05 into the 10th round, it appears that Mayweather just made the under, as the odds were -175 that the fight would be under 9.5 rounds, which it was by 25 seconds.

There were tempting odds that the match would go the distance (+220), but Mayweather’s surge in the 10th round left McGregor beaten, dazed, and weary to the point where referee Robert Byrd had no choice but to halt the match, thus killing hopes of anyone winning that particular bet.

The over/under on how many punches Mayweather was going to land was 110.5 while McGregor’s over/under was 31.5 punches. Each man exceeded that number, as Mayweather was 170/320 while McGregor landed 111 out of 430 of his shots.

McGregor obviously did far better than expected, as there were even odds at +450 that he wouldn’t land a punch in the first round.

Remains to be seen exactly how many pay per views Mayweather vs. McGregor generates, but it’s interested to note that +110 odds were available for under 4.99 Million Buys as compared to -155 odds for over 4.99 Million Buys. Remains to be seen who wins on that bet, as we are still waiting for the final numbers.

There were +250 odds available that Mayweather would NOT wear a “The Money Team” hat into the ring, and it appeared to be a good bet, as he instead had a “TBE” hat he was wearing.

What about a possible rematch? +450 odds are available if it happens sometime in 2018. If you are paying attention to the Sep. 16 Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin matchup from the T-Mobile Arena, there are presently +325 odds that it ends earlier than Mayweather vs. McGregor did.

Chris Robinson can be reached at CRobinson@hustleboss.com

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